Stronger dollar helps
The USDCHF fell below the 100 day MA yesterday for the first time since mid-October, but could not close below the level.
Today it was more of the same thing, and again, the price has not been able to stay below. We will close above the MA today. Looking at the daily chart, the price could not get to the 200 day MA or the 50% retracement on each of the runs lower.
Drilling down to the hourly chart below, the failures below the 100 day MA were choppy over the last two days. That is not what you want to see on a break. Today, it seemed the failure - especially after failing after making a new low - led to buying and more buying. Traders wanted to get away from that MA, and the sellers had their shots below that day MA.
The rally higher has moved above the 100 hour MAat 0.9919 (blue line) and to the 50% retracement of the 5 day move lower at 0.9935. The pair stalled ahead of the 200 hour MA at 0.99466 (green line).
What now?
Well, it took 4 plus days to move from the high to the low and 1/2 a day to retrace half the fall. So I am not surprised the market is stalling between the MAs and around the 50% midpoint. The key level to eye is the 100 hour MA/38.2% and the low from November 29th. All come in around the 0.9919.
If it holds, there may ultimately be another run higher and retest of the 200 hour MA.
