Price has not traded below the 200 hour MA since September 22
The USDJPY has bounced off the 200 hour MA at 110.913. Also near that level is a swing area between 110.898 and 110.978 and the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the September 22 low at 110.943. The area between 110.898 and 110.978 will ultimately need to be broken and stay broken now if the sellers are to take more control.
The current price is trading at 111.11 which was a swing high late on Friday and a high in the Asian session today. The price did move above that level in the early European session, only to fail and move back lower (on the way to test the 200 hour MA). Another move above, would have traders looking toward the high for the day at 111.30. Move above that level and the 100 hour MA at 111.423 would be the next key target.
Overall, there is ups and downs in trading today in the pair, but the swing area, 38.2% and the 200 hour MA being near converged, it makes for a KEY support target. The holding of that target suggests the buyers are making a stand.
Can those buyers now push more to the upside and break above the high for the day on the way to a retest of the 100 hour MA? Or will the buying fizzle and the key area below give way on the back of the failure? That is what the market has to decide. The battle is on after the key test on the downside held.