The AUDUSD will be snapping a 5-week down streak. Since peaking on October 28 at 0.7555, the price has moved down to a low last Friday at 0.6992. That move was good enough for 563 pips from high to low.
This week, the low was on Monday just above that last week low at 0.69935. Not being able to move lower, gave buyers the go-ahead to correct higher. This week saw the price move up to a Thursday high at 0.7186 for a high to low trading range of 193 pips.
Looking at the daily chart, the price move to the upside this week was able to get above the swing low from the end of September at 0.71684. The price has traded above and below that level over the last 3 trading days. The current price heading toward the close is right around that level. Next week, that level could be a close barometer for the buyers and sellers.
Also of note this week, is if you were to look at the weekly chart below, the high price for the week stalled at 0.7186. That high was near the 200 week MA at 0.71831.
Sellers leaned against the moving average level on the first look. Getting above it next week- and the 100 week moving average near 0.7207 (that is also the 38.2% of the move down from the recent cycle high) - would increase the bullish bias. Absent a move above those levels and the buyers aren't winning. The correction of the 563 pip move lower is simple a "plain vanilla" variety.
SUMMARY: The AUDUSD did break it's 5 week down streak this week. However, the corrective move higher did run into topside resistance against the 200 week MA. If the corrective probe is to continue in the new week, getting and staying above the 200 week MA - and the 38.2% of the move down from the October 28 high near 0.7207 - will be eyed. Absent that and the sellers are still in firm control.
