The AUDUSD is moving lower for the seventh in eight trading days and 14 of the last 19 eight trading days (closed at 0.7056 on Friday). Since April 21, the price has moved 428 pips from the high to the low. Since the April 5 high, the price has moved 630 pips (19 trading days).
Today, the price moved to the lowest level since February 1 - three months ago. The low today has taken out the low from February 4 at 0.70512 (low for the day reached 0.70319).
The next major downside target on the daily chart comes in between 0.6990 and 0.7005 (see red numbered circles in the chart above). That area represented swing lows going back to September 2020, October 2020, and December 2021. In January this year, the price move below that swing area to 0.69669. That was the lowest level since July 2020.
Drilling to the hourly chart below, on Friday, the price of the AUDUSD squeezed higher and above a topside channel trendline (see chart below). The price also moved above the 100 hour moving average (blue line) for the first time since April 21.
However, momentum could not make it to the next targets including the high price from Wednesday. After falling back below the 100 hour moving average and back into the channel area, the buyers quickly turned to sellers and pushed the price lower into the close (at 0.7056).
In the early Asian session today, the price did move higher before rotating back lower, and to the low for the day at 0.70319. The current hourly bar just reached 0.7033 just above that low for the day. The price remains between old channel area and well below the 100 hour moving average at 0.71129 currently (blue line in the chart below).
Ultimately, it would take a move back above its 100 hour moving average to give the buyers more control and comfort.
Absent that and the sellers remain in control, and further downside probing would be expected with the aforementioned swing area from the daily chart between 0.6990 and 0.7005 as the next key target area.
