US retail sales results were weaker than anticipated, leading the AUDUSD to reach a new session high and surpassing yesterday's high pressure point and the 100-day moving average at 0.67996 (rounded to 0.6800). The highest price reached 0.6805 before quickly retreating. Federal Reserve Governor Waller commented that the Fed has not made significant progress on inflation and additional rate hikes are necessary. This caused yields and the USD to rise (and the AUDUSD to move lower).
Examining the hourly chart, the price dipped to 0.67517, coming within 7-8 pips of the 200-day moving average of 0.67441. The current price stands at 0.67596. What lies ahead? Buyers had their chance above the 100-day moving average and last week's highs, but they missed the opportunity. The downside still targets the 200-day moving average of 0.67441. If the price falls below this level, the 38.2% retracement of this week's gains at 0.67339 will come into play.
During this trading week, the price dropped on Monday, extending below the recent swing low from March 24 near 0.6625, reaching a low of 0.66186. On Wednesday, the price found support in the 0.6649-0.6652 swing area before spiking to another swing area between 0.67201 and 0.67296. On Thursday, the price fluctuated above and below the 200-hour moving average (green line in the chart) before finding support and surging upward, nearing the 200-day moving average (green line at 0.6744). This run also approached the 100-day moving average, where sellers stepped in.
Today's move failed on the break the 100-day moving average, raising doubts about the momentum's sustainability. Sellers are making their move, but to gain more control, they need to push the price below the 200-day moving average (green line at 0.6744). Currently, buyers are entering the market ahead of this critical moving average level, resulting in a battle between buyers and sellers, with the 100 and 200-day moving averages serving as key barometers for both buyers and sellers.