Yesterday, the AUDUSD fell below its 200 day moving average near 0.7316, but fell short of its 100 day moving average near 0.72308. Looking at the hourly chart, the low price stalled near the top the swing area between 0.7242 and 0.72475. The price rebounded into the close but settled just below the 200 hour moving average (green line in the chart above).
In trading today, after sellers initially leaned against the 200 hour moving average in the Asian session, the buyers ultimately were able to extend above that moving average level and pushed the price higher in the early European trading hours.
That momentum helped to take the price back above its 200 day moving average currently at 0.73155 today. The high price also was able to extend briefly above the 100 hour moving average at 0.73301. However, the two breaks above that moving average have run out of momentum fairly quickly and the price has since moved back between the 200 day moving average below at 0.73155 and the 100 hour moving average above at 0.73301.
So the short term battle lines have been drawn against those moving average levels. The buyers are trying to take back more control, but they need to get the price above the 100 hour moving average to increase that bullish bias.
If the sellers are able to push back below the 200 day moving average, we could see another rotation back toward the 200 hour moving average at 0.72902 (and moving higher).
The AUDUSD did get a boost higher last week on higher commodity prices and perhaps the geographically neutral area.. Today, gold is sharply lower in copper is also a bit lower as well.
However the pair is getting a bit of a boost from risk on sentiment. US stocks are sharply higher with the S&P futures implying up 83.25 points. The Dow industrial average is up 600 points, and the NASDAQ futures are up 330 points in premarket trading.