The Fed last week paused its tightening cycle leaving rates unchanged at 5.00-5.25%. Their rationale for such move is that they need to see more economic data before deciding on further rate hikes as they are trying to find an optimal level of policy restraint to bring inflation down to their 2% target without a bad recession. The RBA, on the other hand, recently surprised with another rate hike leading to a bit of policy divergence between the two central banks and favouring the Australian Dollar.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD has pulled back into the blue 8 moving average as it generally happens when the price rallies too far from the moving average. The price is now back at the previous resistance that now may turn support. All else being equal, we can expect the pair to continue the bullish trend.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price recently broke out of the rising channel and sold off into the 0.6781 support. The red 21 moving average was acting as dynamic support for the buyers that kept on leaning on it for their entries. Now that the moving averages have crossed to the downside, we might have an early signal of a change in trend, so this is something to keep an eye on.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that from a risk management perspective, a good level for the sellers would be the resistance at 0.6835 where we can also find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, the red 21 moving average and the trendline. The stop would be a bit above the trendline and the target the 0.6781 support first and ultimately a breakout with more lower lows. The buyers, on the other hand, may lean on this 0.6781 support to target a new higher high or wait for the price to break above the trendline to pile in and target the 0.70 handle.
This week the market is likely to focus on the US Jobless Claims on Thursday and US PMIs on Friday with some Fed speakers also on the agenda including Fed Chair Powell, who’s going to testify to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.