Fundamental Overview
Yesterday, the US Consumer Confidence report surprised to the downside with one of the largest drops since 2021. The labour market data in the report softened a lot and it generally leads the unemployment rate.
The market responded by raising the probabilities for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November to roughly 60%. The question now is whether this is just about the low hiring rate or something worse. We will have to wait for the NFP report next Friday.
On the AUD side, the RBA yesterday kept the Cash Rate unchanged as expected and although Governor Bullock maintained its hawkish stance, the language was toned down a little.
The monthly Australian CPI today missed expectations and although it didn’t change much the market’s pricing it was still an improvement.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD reached eventually the 0.69 handle. The buyers will want to see the price breaking above it to increase the bullish bets into the 0.70 handle next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back below the 0.6870 level to start targeting a drop back into the 0.68 handle.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a trendline defining the current bullish momentum. If we get a pullback, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor support around the 0.6870 level. The buyers might step in here with a defined risk below the level to position for the continuation of the uptrend, while the sellers will look for a break below the level to target a drop into the major trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE.