Fundamental Overview
Bitcoin eventually managed to break above the key 67275 resistance as the risk mood improved in the latter part of last week. From a macro perspective, nothing has changed as the Fed is going to cut into resilient growth, which should ultimately be a strong bullish driver for the market.
Over the weekend, Trump delivered some positive remarks on Bitcoin as he continues to double down on his support for the crypto industry. As a reminder, Bitcoin rallied strongly from the lows after the failed attempt to assassinate Trump. The market reacted positively to the event because his odds of winning the election soared.
Moreover, the two main bearish drivers that we had at the beginning of the month have been gone as the German government finally offloaded all of its Bitcoin holdings on July 12th and the old crypto exchange Mt. Gox has been repaying its old clients since the first week of July.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that Bitcoin eventually managed to break above the key 67.275 resistance. The buyers should now have even more confidence to pile in for a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back below the 67.275 level to regain some control and start targeting a drop into the 64000 level.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the recent breakout of the 67275 resistance and then the retest before a rally into a new high. From a risk management perspective, the buyers would have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline and the 67275 level to position for a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling below the support and the trendline to turn the bias more bearish and pile in for a drop into the 64000 level.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price is now near the upper bound of the average daily range for today, so it might be a bad idea to pile in around these levels for the buyers as there’s a risk of a pullback.
Upcoming Catalysts
Tomorrow we have the US Job Openings and the US Consumer Confidence reports. On Wednesday, we have the US Employment Cost Index and the FOMC Policy Decision. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report.