Fundamental Overview
Bitcoin has been under heavy selling pressure for the entire month of June as a couple of bearish drivers continued to weigh on the market. First, we had the fears around the Bitcoin repayments to old Mt. Gox clients with expectations that they would sell their Bitcoins or at least part of it. More recently, CNBC reported that “Germany’s government has been selling hundreds of millions of dollars worth of seized bitcoins” and it still holds roughly 32,488 bitcoins which are worth 1.9$ billion dollars.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that Bitcoin eventually dropped below the key 60K support zone and the major trendline around the 58K level. This might weigh on the sentiment and it gives the sellers a bit more control.
The price is now consolidating right beneath the key levels with the sellers piling in with a defined risk above the 60K level to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers will want to see the price rising back above the 60K level to regain some confidence and start targeting new highs.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price retested the major upward trendline recently but failed to make a new low as the market went into consolidation. We can see that from a risk management perspective, the sellers have a nice risk to reward setup around the downward trendline and the 60K resistance. That’s the zone the buyers will need to break to turn the sentiment around and increase the bullish bets into new highs.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that there’s not much to do here as the price action remains rangebound. The sellers will want to lean on the resistance, while the buyers will want to see a breakout to the upside. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Today we have Fed Chair Powell testifying to Congress and the markets will be focused on any view or hint about monetary policy after the recent NFP report. Thursday will be the most important day of the week as we get the US CPI and the US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the US PPI and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.