Crude oil prices today marked a new high for February, reaching $78.74, which exceeded the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward move from the September peak at $78.15 (see chart above). This surge represented a significant bullish momentum for the commodity and was a positive tilt for the technical bias.
However, following this peak, prices experienced a reversal – retracing the gains. The pair is now trading just slightly above the $77 threshold. The current price stands at $77.10, having touched a low of $77.04. This decline brought the price beneath both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which are currently at $77.66 and $77.51, respectively. Staying below these averages could signal increased control by sellers in the market.
It's important to note that prior to this reversal, crude oil had enjoyed a continuous upward trend for seven days. This bullish phase began from a low of $71.43 on February 5th. The price had ascended by 10.23% to the high reached today before commencing its corrective pullback.
The 100/200 day MAs is now risk for sellers. Staying below is more bearish.