If you have been following my analysis, the EURUSD has defined 2 up and down boxes since mid July. The higher box came between 1.00958 and 1.02934. The lower box was between 0.9899 and 1.0121. This week, the price moved outside of the lower box back into the upper box moving to another swing area between 1.0183 and 1.0202. The price stalled in that area both yesterday and today.
The higher than expected CPI data sent the price racing to the downside. Looking at the 4 hour chart, the price move back within the lower box, it also fell below the 200 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart at 1.00958 and is looking back toward the parity level at 1.0000 followed by its 100 bar moving average on the same 4 hour chart at 0.9991.
That moving average level also corresponds with the 61.8% retracement of the move up from last week's low to this week's high. Move below that level and traders will be looking toward the July 14 low (the low for the time for the year) at 0.99515.
Stocks are opening sharply lower with the NASDAQ down -2.74%. Ouch. The 10 year yield is up 7.3 basis points. The 2 year yield is up 17 basis point as traders ratchet up the terminal rate for the US to now just above 4.25%.