The focus is on the EURUSD as Lagarde presser continues. The ECB forecast lower growth in 2022 and much higher inflation.
The price action in the EURUSD has seen a move back lower after the market initially tested the old swing lows from January and February 2022. The February 2022 swing low came in at 1.1106 while the January 2022 swing low was at 1.11207. In March, the price has traded above and below those levels earlier in the month but moved away to the downside on March 3.
With the recent run up, the price today retested those old lows and found willing sellers on the first look.
On the downside, the 200 hour moving average was broken yesterday for the first time since February 23 (to the upside). The corrective lows today did see brief moves below that moving average but only by a few pips. The buyers were leaning against that level.
The 200 hour moving average will remain a key barometer for buyers and sellers on the downside. Move below with more momentum and I would expect the buyers to turn to sellers and give up on the upside at least in the short term.
For now, there is disappointment being shown in the rejection of the high resistance area. The prices below the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the February 10 high at 1.1068 is a more bearish tilt. However, with the press conference ongoing, there could be up and down volatility .
There is still some good and bad in the technicals, but the price action today respected support and also respected resistance. The battle rages as traders await the next shove.
Looking at the EURGBP , the pair initially moved higher and extended above its 100 day moving average at 0.84175. Recall from yesterday that moving average stalled the rally.
The break higher today could not be sustained (it reached a swing level resistance target as well). The price has since moved back below that moving average level and currently trades at 0.8394. There are some swing levels below at 0.8385 and below that at 0.8376 to 0.8378. Move below those levels and buyers should turn increasingly more to the sell side.
Resistance reestablish at the 100 day moving average now after the failure.
