The EURUSD fell lower on the back of weaker PMI data out of Europe. The price fell below the 38.2% retracement at 1.1106 on its way to a low price of 1.1064. That low stalled within a swing area on the 4-hour chart between 1.1062 and 1.1075, and ahead of the 50% midpoint and the 100 bar moving average of the 4-hour chart which is both centered at 1.1054. Going forward getting below the swing area and the midpoint/moving average target at 1.1054 is needed to increase a bearish bias.
Close risk now for sellers would be the broken 38.2% retracement area (and low from Friday) at 1.1106. Now admittedly the price did move higher off the load today and traded at 1.1108, but the price quickly rotated back to the downside. It would take another move above the 38.2% retracement with momentum to increase bullish bias (and negate the bearish price action).
Until then, the sellers are more in control with the support levels likely to be tested.
