The EURUSD has moved lower as some of the ECB hawks eased up on their 50 basis point hike rhetoric (Knot and Rhen). Growth forecasts are expected to decline going forward as a result of higher oil prices, Ukraine war, China slowdown, etc..
Looking at the hourly chart, the price decline took the pair back below the swing area near 1.0696 and 1.07062. That led to continued trend like selling down toward the rising 100 hour moving average currently at 1.06346. The 50% midpoint of the move down from the April 21 high is also being tested at 1.06421, along with the high price from May 5 reached 1.0641. A swing area between 1.06336 and 1.0642 is also in play (see red numbered circles in the chart above). The low price just reached 1.0641 and bounced. The current price is trading at 1.0650.
The first test has been a success.
Buyers are leaning against support. However going forward if that area is broken, I would expect the buyers to turn to sellers on the disappointment of the break above the old May high and the cluster of other technical levels.
Drilling to the 5 minutes chart below, the price action in the EURUSD is not in favor of the buyers as the price has trended lower with limited intraday corrective moves..
The price has been able to stay below the 100 bar moving average (blue line in the chart below) and the 200 bar moving average (green line in the chart below) since early in the Asian session. It would take a move back above the 100 bar moving average to tilt the bias back to the upside in the short-term.
More recently, the EURUSD price has fallen below the 38.2% retracement of the move up from last Thursday's low level. That retracement level comes in at 1.06656 and will also be a close intraday risk level (along with the falling 100 bar moving average 1.06778). Stay below both those levels and the sellers remain more in control intraday.
On the downside, the low price today - in addition to stalling against the key area on the hourly chart - also stalled against the 50% midpoint of the move up from the Thursday's low. That level comes in at 1.06402. The low price for the day reach 1.0641 so far. That hold also increases the areas importance going forward.
The 1.06332 to 1.0642 is a key support level today and going forward. Be aware.
