The GBPJPY is the biggest mover on the day with the pair now down -1.26% on the day. The move lower comes after 3 days of gains that saw the pair move up toward the 50% midpoint of the range since the April at 161.99. The high price yesterday reached 161.842 – ahead of that target level.
In trading today the high price in the early Asian session fell short of yesterday's high price and buyers turned to sellers. After breaking back below the 38.2% retracement at 160.48, the low reached close to its 200 hour moving average but found early buyers against that level. Recall that yesterday the price broke above the 200 hour moving average for the 1st time since May 5.
After the balance ahead of the 200 hour moving average, the pair retested the 38.2% retracement, sellers leaned, and the last 2 hours have seen a rotation back to the downside as buying of JPY dominates (lower GBPJPY).
The price is now broken back below the 200 hour moving average at 159.650, and is trading to a new session low of 159.38. The swing highs from Mondays trade near 159.25 are the next target followed by the rising 100 hour moving average at 158.92. A move below the 100 hour moving average would sour the move even more for the longs/buyers, and put the sellers more in control.. Close risk would be the 200 hour moving average 159.644. A move above that level would give longs/buyers a breath of hope that the worst is over. It would take a move back above the 38.2% retracement 160.480 to give more confidence to the buyers.