The GBPUSD has moved below the 1.2938 level. That level corresponded with a number of swing lows and highs going back to mid-July (see red numbered circles on the chart below). See earlier video HERE at 4:15 mark.

Last week the price fell below that level as well, but quickly snapped back higher.

GBPUSD

Today we are seeing follow-through selling that has taken the price now below last week's low at 1.29064, and is down testing part at the 50% midpoint of the move up from the April 2024 low to the September 2024 high. That midpoint level comes in at 1.2866. The pairi is also within a swing area between 1.28449 and 1.28719.

This area should hold support if risk-focused buyers enter. If the price were to break below 1.28449, however, I would expect more selling with the 200-day at 1.28078 the next key target support level. The price has not traded below the 200-day moving average since May 14.

On a path higher from support, the low from last week at 1.29064 is close resistance followed by the 1.2938 level. I would not expect the price to move back above the 1.2938 level without a fight.

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis

The GBPUSD has broken below the key 1.2938 level, a significant support/resistance zone since mid-July (see chart). Previously, the price briefly dipped below this level last week but quickly rebounded.

Current Market Situation

Today's selling pressure has pushed the price below last week's low (1.29064) and is now testing the 50% midpoint of the April-September uptrend (1.2866). The pair is also within a swing area between 1.28449 and 1.28719, which should provide support if risk-focused buyers enter.

Key Levels to Watch

Support Levels:

  • 1.28449: Break below this level could trigger more selling

  • 1.28078 (200-day moving average): Next key target support level; price hasn't traded below since May 14

Resistance Levels:

  • 1.29064: Close resistance

  • 1.2938: Significant resistance; unlikely to break without strong bullish momentum

A break below 1.28449 could lead to further selling, while a bounce from support may face resistance at 1.29064 and 1.2938.