The GBPUSD moved to a new 2021 low in trading today at 1.31588. That low took out the low from November 30 at 1.31929 and move down to test the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the March 2020 low. That level comes in at 1.3161. The price is also entered into a swing area between 1.3132 1.31855 on the daily chart above (see red numbered circles).
The price has since bounced back higher in trades right around the old low from November 30 at 1.31929 in early North American trading.
The run to the downside was pushed lower on fears of new social distancing rules as result of omicron. However the Pfizer news this morning has helped to alleviate some of that fear (and lead to a push back to the upside).
What next?
If more trading can occur above 1.31929 and the lows from last Friday and Tuesday at 1.3208, there could be more rotation to the upside. The snapback rally off the bottom (and news) did reach up to 1.3222, but the subsequent high has stalled at 1.32075 just below that 1.3208 level. Get above 1.3208 is needed to give the buyers more hope/intraday control.
Taking a closer look at the hourly chart below, the high price in the Asian session stalled against the 100 hour moving average (blue line). Recall from yesterday's trade - and also the Friday spike on the US jobs report - the price did move above that 100 hour moving average line but stalled will ahead of the 200 hour moving average (green line) currently at 1.32865.
Ultimately, it would take a move back above the 100 hour moving average AND the 200 hour moving average to give the buyers more control. Absent that, and the sellers are still winning.
