Fundamental Overview
Yesterday, we got some positive US data releases as the US retail sales came out a touch better than expected and the industrial production data beat forecasts erasing the hurricane related weakness in July.
The data put some pressure on gold and we might see some profit-taking given that it’s unlikely that the Fed will be able to out-dove the markets expectations today.
The market is pricing a 63% probability that the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps today and then delivers 250 bps of easing by the end of 2025. That seems a bit too aggressive at the moment, so the market might get disappointed for the 2025 pricing.
Gold Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that gold is slowly edging lower as some profit-taking after the recent rally might be taking place. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the previous resistance now turned support to position for the continuation of the uptrend. The sellers, on the other hand, don’t have any level where to lean on this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.
Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the setup around the 2532 support where we can also find the confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the trendline. This is where the buyers will likely step in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the 2482 level.
Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor resistance around the 2575 level where have also a downward trendline for confluence. If we get a pullback into the resistance, we can expect the sellers to step in to position for a drop into the 2532 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Today, we have the FOMC Rate Decision and tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures.