On the daily chart below, we can see that after struggling to break the key 12274 resistance and consolidating just beneath it, the price started to fall as the US retail sales data missed expectations, jobless claims kept on deteriorating and early in the week the issues with the First Republic Bank sent the market into risk off.
Everything seemed to line up perfectly for the sellers until yesterday when the US GDP report showed a stronger than expected economy under the hood as consumer spending remained resilient and the US Jobless Claims beat forecasts after several weeks of misses. This gave the buyers conviction to push to the upside and the bear squeeze caused a big intraday rally.
Nasdaq technical analysis
On the 4 hour chart below, we can see that the price bounced just shy of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The buyers should now be targeting the key resistance level and possibly a breakout barring any negative economic data the next week. If we get a breakout that would give the buyers again the conviction on the big bullish flag that was broken on the 17th of March and the ultimate target for that is the 13000 level.
On the 1 hour chart below, we can see more closely the range since the start of April. The breakdown caused by the renewed fears around the banking sector may end up being a fakeout. There isn’t much to do within the range as the best strategy is to sit out and wait for a breakout supported by a clear fundamental catalyst. More aggressive traders can “play the range” buying at support and selling at resistance.