The NZDUSD moved to a new high for the weekend in the process extend above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from last week's high to last week's low. That level comes in at 00.6258. That high price stalled against the high of a swing area going back to early May between 0.6259 and 0.62732. And also stalled ahead of the 100-day moving average of 0.62757. When a key target is reached, it's easy to see buyers turn to sellers. A more favorable tone toward the US dollar also help to push as yields moved higher.
The subsequent fall today (looking at the hourly chart below) took the price back below the falling 100-hour moving average of 0.6239, but held support against a trendline connecting lows from Friday and today (see green number at circles) the price has bounced back hiring currently trades at 0.62504.
What now?
Close support comes in at the 100-hour moving average and the trendline. If the price of the NZDUSD moves below each, the sellers are back in control.
Having said that, getting back above the 38.2% retracement at 0.62585 and ultimately above the 100-day moving average at 0.62757, the 50% midpoint of the range last week at 0.62824 and the 200-day moving average at 0.6286 are all topside targets that could still stall any rallies.
Taking a broader look at the daily chart, the high prices from last week moved into a swing area going back to February and found willing sellers. The sharp move to the downside on Thursday and Friday did stall ahead of the 200-day moving average (which is moving sideways indicative of a market that is unsure of the directional bias). I guess it makes sense if the 100-day moving average would stall the rally now and the price continued to waffle in between the moving averages as it waits for the next shove (either from the USD or from the NZD).
Looking at the daily chart below, in February, March, and April, the sellers had their shot below the 200-day moving average on a number of occasions and could not extend below a swing area between 0.60559 and 0.60844.
On the topside, there were a number of tries above its 100-day moving average as well only to find resistance between 0.6363 and 0.6389. The Red Box in the chart below is controlling the extremes.
So to give the nod to buyers or sellers off the daily chart is stretching the bias, especially with the price between the 200-day moving average and the 100-day moving average. Getting above the 100 or below the 200-day MAs will be eyed and then the extremes from the Red Box.
