Last week, the NZDUSD reached a peak just below its 100-day MA, currently at 0.60546.
Subsequently, the pair experienced a decline on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, leading to a low point within a swing area ranging from 0.58796 to 0.58945 (see lower yellow area on the chart below). This region halted the downward movement, resulting in a modest price increase today. However, if the low has indeed formed a bottom within the swing area, there are challenges on the upside.
To establish a more bullish bias, the price must surpass the following levels:
- The 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.5939,
- The 38.2% retracement from last week's high at 0.59483, and
- The 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.5959.
If that is not doable, oOn the downside, the swing area between 0.58798 and 0.58945 remains crucial for increasing the bearish bias.
The video above outlines the technical in play for this currency pair.
