On the daily chart below, we can see that the long period of choppiness since the March banking crisis seems to be ending. After a brief spike to the 0.6389 resistance caused by the bigger than expected RBNZ hike, the market turned lower, and the price started to make lower lows as the US data began to miss expectations causing recessionary vibes.

The latest big move lower started when the US Retail Sales missed expectations across the board sending the US Dollar higher as a safe haven . Yesterday we also had a big risk off day probably caused by fears around the FRC bank and another banking crisis. The market is now eyeing the March low at 0.6084.

NZDUSD technical analysis

On the 4 hour chart below, we can see more closely the ugly price action since March with the price basically ranging between 0.6170 and 0.6280. With this new trend lower we now have the major trendline that will act as resistance for the sellers in case the price bounces from the March low and pulls all the way back there.

At the moment the price is trading within a channel with the sellers targeting the March low. The buyers are likely to lean on that support to then target the top of the channel and ultimately the trendline.

On the 1 hour chart below, we can see there’s another trendline within the channel that defines the current bearish momentum. If the price breaks above it, then we may see a rally towards the top of the channel with the sellers waiting there. Otherwise, the price may reject this trendline and fall towards the March low.

Tomorrow, we have the US Jobless Claims, and they were giving market moving opportunities lately. Another miss should send the market lower, while a beat may give the buyers enough strength to push the price towards the major trendline.