USD

  • The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.
  • Fed Chair Powell maintained a neutral stance as he said that it was premature to react to the recent inflation data given possible bumps on the way to their 2% target.
  • The US CPI and the US PPI beat expectations for the second consecutive month.
  • The US Jobless Claims beat expectations across the board.
  • The latest US Manufacturing PMI beat expectations while the Services PMI missed slightly. Both the measures remain in expansion though.
  • The US Consumer Confidence missed expectations although the labour market details improved.
  • The market expects the first rate cut in June.

NZD

  • The RBNZ kept its official cash rate unchanged dropping the tightening bias and stating that the OCR will need to remain at restrictive level for a sustained period.
  • The latest New Zealand inflation data printed in line with expectations supporting the RBNZ’s patient stance.
  • The labour market report beat expectations across the board with lower than expected unemployment rate and higher wage growth.
  • The Manufacturing PMI improved in February remaining in contraction while the Services PMI increased further holding on in expansion.
  • The market expects the first cut in August.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

NZDUSD Technical Analysis
NZDUSD Daily

On the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD finally broke through the key support zone around the 0.6050 level. The sellers will now target the 0.59 handle as there’s no other significant support until then. The buyers will need the price to rise back above the key 0.6050 level to start targeting new highs.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

NZDUSD Technical Analysis
NZDUSD 4 hour

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a trendline where we can also find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. If we were to get a pullback, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into new lows with a better risk to reward setup. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and start targeting the 0.6218 level.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

NZDUSD Technical Analysis
NZDUSD 1 hour

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we might be forming a double bottom around the 0.5985 level, but the price will need to break above the 0.6030 neckline and the trendline to confirm it. Nevertheless, the buyers will likely start to position for a break above the trendline in advance with a break above the 0.6008 level as the trigger point for a bullish move. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the recent low to increase the bearish bets into the 0.59 handle.

Upcoming Events

Today we have Fed’s Waller speaking where the market will want to see if he sounds hawkish after the recent economic data. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude with the US PCE and Fed Chair Powell.