The NZDUSD moved higher today based on the lows against a swing area near the 0.60829 level before moving to the upside and breaking outside of what has been an up-and-down trading range until today (largely under the 0.6100 level).
The move to the upside today did extend the range for the week and moved up to test the 38.2% retracement of the May trading range. The retracement level came in at 0.61367 and that's where the price stalled.
If the buyers are to take more control, getting above the 38.2% retracement is a minimum retracement level needed to show that they are serious about moving against the current trend. Absent that, the move to the upside is just a "plain vanilla" correction.
So as we head into the new trading week, getting about 38.2% retracement will be needed going forward. If the price can move above that level the 200-day moving average at 0.6148 level would be the next close hurdle. The price in the NZDUSD has not been above the 200-day moving average since breaking below it on May 24. Move above that level and 50% of the same move down would be targeted at 0.61838
On the downside, failure to get above the 38.2% retracement would have traders thinking toward a retest of the 0.6100 level. Move below that level and the 100 and 200-hour moving averages will be in play (blue and green lines on the chart below).
So although the price is solidly higher in trading today, the buyers could not really break to the upside and give the buyers more confidence. As a result, traders will go into the new week with the continued battle between buyers and sellers in the NZDUSD pair.
