Both the US and the Canadian jobs reports will be released at 8:30 AM ET. For a technical review of the EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDCAD ahead of the report, click on the video ABOVE.
In the VIDEO, I look at the levels in play that would tip the technical bias more in the favor of the bears or the bulls given data outside the expected range.
For the US data, the expectations shows :
- Consensus estimate +250K
- Private +265K
- August +315K
- Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 3.7% vs 3.7% prior
- Participation rate prior 62.4%
- Prior underemployment U6 7.0%
- Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +5.1% y/y vs +5.2% prior
- Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.3% prior
- Avg weekly hours exp 34.5 vs 34.5 prior
A stronger number would be good news for the dollar bulls as rates should go higher, stocks lower.
A weaker number would be bearish for the dollar as terminal rates would tilt more to the downside, stocks would continue the correction higher.
In Canada, the expectations call for:
- Unemployment rate 5.4% vs. 5.4% last month
- employment change 20.0K vs -39.7K last month
- full-time employment last month came in at -77.2K
- part-time employment last month came in at 37.5K
- participation rate last month came in at 64.8%
- average hourly wages last month came in at 5.6%.
Typically when Canada and US jobs reports comment on the same day, the technical bias is influenced more by the US dollar reaction.
Going into the number today, the GBP is the strongest of the majors while the NZD is the weakest. The USD is modestly weaker.
Looking at other levels:
- Spot gold is down -$1.25 or -0.07% at 1709.90
- Spot silver is up $0.02 at $20.65
- WTI crude oil is trading at $89.75 up $1.29
- Bitcoin is trading at $19989
IN the pre-market for US stocks, the snapshot is showing:
- Dow is up 97 points after falling -346 points yesterday
- S&P is up 3.25 poitns after falling -38.76 points yesterday
- Nasdaq is down -24 points after yesterday -75 point decline
US yields show:
- 2 year 4.29%, up 4 bps
- 5 year 4.098%, up 3.8 bps
- 10 year 3.84% up 1.7 bps
- 30 year 3.794%, up 0.2 bps