On the daily chart below for the S&P 500, we can see that the price action remains rangebound just beneath the 4175 level. This has been a really strong resistance and we can expect some quick rally once the price breaks out decisively with buyers jumping in aggressively and sellers folding fast.
Overall, the market hasn’t done much since April as we’ve just been bouncing up and down between the 4175 resistance and the 4061 support. This is the type of market that chops out many traders that suffer from impatience. At the moment, it’s a waiting game until we get a clear breakout supported by a fundamental catalyst.
In the 4 hour chart below, we can see that we have an even tighter range between the 4175 resistance and the 4120 support. Such compressions generally lead to big moves once the market breaks out. The big spike yesterday was due to positive news on the debt ceiling front, but it’s more likely that in case of a deal we get a “sell the fact” reaction rather than a rally. The risk events to watch next are the US Jobless Claims today and Fed Chair Powell speech tomorrow.
In the 1 hour chart below, we can see more closely the tight range we’ve been stuck into since the start of May. A break above the 4175 level should lead to a quick rally into the 4206 high. That will be the last line of defence for the sellers as a break beyond that will lead to further upside into the 4300 area. On the downside, the sellers may lean again on the 4175 resistance and target the 4120 support first, and 4061 support next. Keep close eye on these levels.
