Fundamental Overview
The S&P 500 has been rallying steadily this week thanks to positive news both on the tariffs and inflation front. On Monday, we got a news from Bloomberg that the Trump’s team was studying gradual tariffs hikes.
On Tuesday, we got a very soft US PPI report and yesterday lower than expected US Core CPI data. The market pricing edged higher from 24 bps of easing by year end to 36 bps following the US CPI report.
This week might have marked the top in inflation hysteria and the repricing in rate cuts expectations, which should support the market going forward as long as growth doesn’t start to weaken too much.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500 briefly probed below the key 5855 support but eventually bounced back strongly thanks to a few positive catalysts.
The buyers are now targeting the most recent lower high around the 6068 level to change the trend with a break above it. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely step in around the 6068 level with a defined risk above it to position for a drop back into the support.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe. The sellers are stepping in around these levels with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop back into the support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a couple of key levels here. We have the minor upward trendline defining the current buildup into the major trendline.
The buyers will likely lean on the minor trendline to position for a break above the major trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 5960 level next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Today we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the US Retail Sales data.