In this simple technical analysis, long term, yet a very simple one, I present a 'technical map' of the stock market, as reflected by the S&P 500 (ES). I start with the monthly timeframe where each candle is 1 month, exploring the big picture of what has transpired since 2009 and providing insights on the current market situation. I maintain a slighly bullish view till the market will test the 4400 later this year.

Key points: within the above S&P 500 technical analysis video

  • Long-term uptrend since 2009 with multiple touch points
  • Channel patterns providing guidance on market direction
  • Short-term consolidation patterns indicating potential future moves
  • Importance of weekly and daily candlestick patterns in determining market sentiment
  • Possible disconnect between markets and economies

Technical analysis overview:

  • The S&P 500 has been in a consistent uptrend since 2009, with a clear channel visible on the charts
  • Touch points on this channel have occurred at key market moments, including the March 2020 lows and October 2021's V-shaped recovery
  • A secondary, purple channel has also formed, starting in January 2022, with multiple touch points indicating its significance
  • Currently, the market is in a bullish mode, with a breakout above the top end of the purple channel

Recent developments for the S&P 500 emini futures:

  • A consolidation or bull flag pattern is forming after the breakout, suggesting further upside potential
  • An anticipated target of 4200 is within reach, barring any sudden crashes or negative earnings reports
  • The bigger picture remains bullish for the year, despite contrary economic news or household sentiments

Looking ahead at the S&P 500 till the end of 2023:

  • A possible test of the 4400 level could be on the horizon, though not necessarily in a straight path
  • Key levels to watch include 3950, which would signify a break below both the purple and primary channel, potentially indicating a shift from bullish to bearish sentiment. If 2 consecutive weekly candles close below the big channel shown in the above technical analysis video, my premise would change from bull to bear

Conclusion: In summary, our technical analysis of the S&P 500 reveals a predominantly bullish market outlook. By utilizing channel patterns, candlestick analysis, and an understanding of the disconnect between markets and economies, investors and traders can better navigate the stock market landscape. As always, it is crucial to invest and trade at your own risk and visit ForexLive.com technical analysis for additional insights and updates.