Fundamental Overview
The S&P 500 has been consolidating around the all-time high as the lack of catalysts and the pressure from rising Treasury yields kept the market at bay.
We are now near the US elections and it’s going to be a major event for the market. A Trump victory will likely give the stock market a boost on better growth expectations, while a Harris triumph could be more bearish.
Treasury yields and the stock market often move in the same direction as long as the move is led by growth expectations. So the data, the elections result and the Fed's reaction function will be key for the market in the next six months.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500 is consolidating around the all-time. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the trendline to start targeting new lows.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the rangebound price action between the 5920 resistance and the 5865 support. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to extend the rally into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to target a deeper pullback into the trendline.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here. It’s unlikely that we’ll get a breakout today given the lack of catalysts. The red lines define the average daily range for today
Upcoming Catalysts
Tomorrow we get the US Flash PMIs and the US Jobless Claims figures.