The AUD is the strongest and the EUR is the weakest as the North American session begins. The US dollar is mixed a higher with the largest gains 1st the EUR and CHF in the morning snapshot and the biggest decline vs the AUD.
Bitcoin surged to its highest since May 2022. Speculation on an imminent Bitcoin ETF approval drove the surge, following a 10% increase on Monday. Reports suggest the SEC may not appeal a recent court ruling, raising hopes for ETF approval. Institutional money, potentially in trillions, is waiting to enter Bitcoin once an ETF is approved, says Ernst & Young's Paul Brody.
Economic focus is on S&P Flash PMIs today. In the US, S&P Flash PMI is estimated at 49.5 versus a 48.9 last month. The services PMI is expected 49.8 versus 50.2 last month.
In Europe this morning, the flash PMI data was mixed.:
- French Flash Manufacturing PMI: LOWER (Actual 42.6 vs. Forecast 44.4)
- French Flash Services PMI: HIGHER (Actual 46.1 vs. Forecast 44.9)
- German Flash Manufacturing PMI: HIGHER (Actual 40.7 vs. Forecast 40.1)
- German Flash Services PMI: LOWER (Actual 48.0 vs. Forecast 50.1)
- Eurozone (EUR) Flash Manufacturing PMI: LOWER (Actual 43.0 vs. Forecast 43.6)
- Eurozone (EUR) Flash Services PMI: LOWER (Actual 47.8 vs. Forecast 48.7)
- British Pound (GBP) Flash Manufacturing PMI: HIGHER (Actual 45.2 vs. Forecast 44.7)
- British Pound (GBP) Flash Services PMI: HIGHER (Actual 49.2 vs. Forecast 49.4)
Yields are higher by a few basis points in the US to start the trading day. US equities are also higher in premarket trading.
The earnings released this morning showed that there are more BEATs than MISSes. Below is the list of some of the major companies reporting:
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) Q3 2023 (USD):
- Adj. EPS: $1.63 (BEAT, expected: $1.52)
- Revenue: $21.70 billion (MISS, expected: $23.68 billion)
- Note: Raises FY23 earnings outlook
Verizon Communications Inc (VZ) Q3 2023 (USD):
- EPS: $1.22 (BEAT, expected: $1.18)
- Revenue: $33.3 billion (BEAT, expected: $33.25 billion)
- Note: Raises FCF guidance
Sherwin-Williams Co (SHW) Q3 2023 (USD):
- Adj. EPS: $3.20 (BEAT, expected: $2.77)
- Revenue: $6.12 billion (BEAT, expected: $6.02 billion)
Coca-Cola Co (KO) Q3 2023 (USD):
- Adj. EPS: $0.74 (BEAT, expected: $0.69)
- Revenue: $12.00 billion (BEAT, expected: $11.44 billion)
- Organic Revenue Growth: +11.0% (BEAT, expected: +6.9%)
- Note: Raises FY EPS growth view to +7-8% (previous: +5-6%), Raises FY Adj. Revenue growth view to +10-11% (previous: +8-9%; expected: +9.88%).
RTX Corporation (RTX) Q3 2023 (USD):
- Adj. EPS: $1.25 (BEAT, expected: $1.21)
- Revenue: $19 billion (BEAT, expected: $18.59 billion)
- Note: Announces $10 billion accelerated share buyback program
Halliburton Co (HAL) Q3 2023 (USD):
- Adj. EPS: $0.77 (MEET, expected: $0.77)
- Revenue: $5.804 billion (MISS, expected: $5.86 billion)
PulteGroup Inc (PHM) Q3 2023 (USD):
- EPS: $2.90 (BEAT, expected: $2.84)
- Revenue: $3.89 billion (MISS, expected: $4.02 billion)
- Note: Says despite high rates, desire for homeownership is strong while the supply remains constrained
General Motors Co (GM) Q3 2023 (USD):
- Adj. EPS: $2.28 (BEAT, expected: $1.88)
- Revenue: $44.13 billion (BEAT, expected: $43.68 billion)
- Note: Withdraws FY23 guidance due to strike uncertainty
3M Co (MMM) Q3 2023 (USD):
- Adj. EPS: $2.68 (BEAT, expected: $2.34)
- Revenue: $8.3 billion (BEAT, expected: $7.98 billion)
- Adjusted Revenue: $8.00 billion
- Note: Raises FY Adj. EPS view to $8.95-$9.15 (previous: $8.60-$9.10; expected: $8.87), FY23 Revenue view: -5% (expected: -7.7%).
General Electric Co (GE) Q3 2023 (USD):
- Adj. EPS: $0.82 (BEAT, expected: $0.56)
- Adjusted Revenue: $16.50 billion (BEAT, expected: $15.7 billion)
- Note: Raises FY Adj. EPS view to $2.55-$2.65 (previous: $2.10-$2.30; expected: $2.36), FY organic Revenue view: "low teens" (previous: "low double digits")
Dow Inc (DOW) Q3 2023 (USD):
- EPS: $0.42 (MISS, expected: $0.44)
- Revenue: $10.73 billion (MISS, expected: $10.32 billion)
- Q4 Revenue view: $10.0-$10.5 billion (expected: $10.7 billion)
After the close 2 of the Magnificent 7 will report with Microsoft and Alphabet leading the way.
Microsoft earnings are expected to show EPS of $2.65 and revenue of $54.5 billion. Investors are particularly interested in updates following the completion of the Activision Blizzard deal. There is also a significant focus on assessing the success of Microsoft's investment in artificial intelligence within its cloud computing unit. Microsoft recently announced a $3.2 billion investment in expanding its artificial intelligence and cloud computing capabilities in Australia over two years. Yesterday also announced yesterday that Nvidia, a dominant player in artificial intelligence computing chips, will be expanding its reach by entering the personal computer market, traditionally dominated by Intel. Nvidia is reportedly designing central processing units (CPUs) capable of running Microsoft's Windows operating system, utilizing technology from Arm Holdings. This move aligns with Microsoft's goal to assist chip manufacturers in creating Arm-based processors for Windows PCs. The initiative targets Apple, which has seen significant market share growth since introducing its Arm-based chips for Mac computers, as per preliminary third-quarter data from IDC.
Alphabet is expected to report earnings of $1.45 per share and revenue of $75.9 billion. Investors are keen to gain insights into the current state of the digital advertising landscape. Alphabet is likely to benefit from its strong cloud division, which is contributing to substantial revenue growth. Additionally, the expansion of data centers is expected to enhance its presence in the cloud computing sector.
Visa and Texas Instruments will also report after the close. Other earnings on deck for the rest of the week include:
Wednesday:
- Boeing*
- T-Mobile*
- Hilton*
- General Dynamics*
- Meta
- IBM
- ServiceNow
Thursday:
- Altria*
- Southwest*
- Northrup Grumman*
- Merck*
- Amazon
- Intel
- Ford
- Chipotle
Friday:
- Exxon Mobil*
- Chevron*
- Phillips 66*
- Colgate-Palmolive*
A snapshot of the markets as the NA session gets underway shows:
- Crude oil is trading up $0.08 or 0.09% at $85.57. At this time yesterday the price was higher at $87.57.
- Spot gold is trading down $10.24 or -0.52% at $1962.15. At this time yesterday, the price was higher at $1977.35.
- Spot silver is trading down $0.11 -0.48% $22.82. At this time yesterday the price was higher at $23.19.
- Bitcoin is continuing its sharp move to the upside trading at $34,658. At this time yesterday the price was lower at $30,642.
In the US stock market, the major indices are trading higher after closing lower Friday. The NASDAQ index and the S&P index have down for 4 consecutive days(this would be the 5th), led by the NASDAQ index which fell over 3% last week.
- Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 131 points. Yesterday, the index tumbled -190.87 points.
- S&P index futures are implying a gain of 20.5 points. Yesterday, the index fell -7.12 points for the 5th decline in a row.
- NASDAQ futures are implying a gain of 88 points. Yesterday, the index snapped its 4 day decline with a gain of 34.52 points.
In the European equity markets, the major indices are trading lower
- German DAX, +0.14%. Last week the index fell -2.56%
- France's CAC, +0.53%. Last week the index fell -2.67%
- UK's FTSE 100, -0.05% %. Last week the index fell -2.60%
- Spain's Ibex, -0.02%. Last week the index fell -2.21%
- Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.27% (10 minute delay)
In the Asia Pacific market, major indices were lower:
- Japan's Nikkei index, +0.20%.
- China's Shanghai Composite Index, +0.78%.
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, -1.05%.
- Australia's S&P/ASX index, +0.19%.
In the US debt market, yields are moving higher as the yield curve continues to steepen:
- US 2Y T-NOTE: 5.094% +3.3 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 5.116% +3.2 basis points.
- US 5Y T-NOTE: 4.831% +3.8 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.918% .
- US 10Y T-NOTE: 4.873% +3.6 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.986%
- US 30Y BOND: 5.016% up 2.6 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 5.147%
- 2 – 10-year spread is at -21.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -13.1 basis points. At this time Friday, the spread was at -18.3 basis points.
- 2 – 30 year spread is at -7.8 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at +2.7 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield spread was at -4.6 basis points.
In the European debt market, benchmark 10-year yields are trading lower:
