The AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the North American session begins. The USD is mixed to start the trading day. It is still one more day until the US CPI data which will be relisted tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET. The expectations is a gain of 0.2% for the headline in the core measures. Today, US mortgage application data rebounded after last week's declines. It's end of the year/beginning of the year type of data most likely. Having said that, yields have moved lower over the last month (although marginally higher in the current week) which has spurred on more activity from low levels.
- MBA Mortgage Applications:
- Increased by 9.9%.
- Previous period showed a decline of -10.7%.
- Mortgage Market Index:
- Rose to 190.6 from 173.5.
- MBA Purchase Index:
- Increased from 140.7 to 148.6.
- Mortgage Refinance Index:
- Jumped to 425.4 from 358.2.
- MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate:
- Slightly increased from 6.76% to 6.81%.
Later at 10 AM US Wholesale inventories will be released (minor release):
- Wholesale Inventory (y/y), November:
- Expected to decrease by -0.2%.
- Prior period showed a decrease of -0.4%.
- Wholesale Sales (m/m), November:
- Anticipated to decrease by -0.3%.
- Previous was a -1.3% decrease.
Bitcoin is settling down after the false post on X indicating the approval of Bitcoin ETFs.. The news sent bitcoin sharply to the upside, to only move sharply to the downside after the SEC indicated the release was a result of a hack of their X account.
Gary Gensler the SEC head X'ed on his personal account that the "The SEC has not approved the listing and trading of spot bitcoin exchange-traded products,"
Data from Japan today showed wage growth for Japanese workers slowed sharply in November 2023. The Bank of Japan is awaiting a virtuous cycle of pay rises and price increases as a prerequisite for starting a tightening of monetary policy. That was not evident in the data today and as a result, sent the JPY to the downside today. The wait continues for Spring wage negotiations.
Crude oil inventory data will be released at 10:30 AM ET. Crude oil and toys are expected to show a decline of -0.675M versus -5.503M last week. The private data released late yesterday showed a large drawdown appointed 5.2 million barrels. However there were large build in gasoline and distilates. Gasoline inventories showed a 4.9 million barrel build. The distilates showed a bill of 6.8 million barrels. Crude oil is trading up and down in trading today.
A snapshot of the markets as the North American session begins currently shows:
- Crude oil is trading up $0.37 or 0.51% at $72.61. At this time yesterday, the price was at $72.53
- Gold is trading up $1.20 or 0.06% at $2031.14. At this time yesterday, it was trading at $2036.09
- Silver is trading down three cents or -0.13% at $22.93.. At this time yesterday, it was trading at $23.14
- Bitcoin traded at $44,399. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $46,241. The price spiked up to a high of $47,097 after the hacked release that the SEC approved the Bitcoin ETFs, and then declined to a low of $45,081 for settlement. The high price today reached $46,247. The loan was at $45,081. Today is the day we are still expecting a Yay for the approval of the ETF officially. The announcement is expected after the close today. SMH.
In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are trading next after trading mixed on Tuesday
- Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a decline -22 points. Yesterday, the index fell -157.85 points or -0.42%
- S&P futures are implying a decline of -1.25 points. Yesterday, the index fell -7.04.points or -0.15%
- Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 14.5 points. Yesterday,, the index rose by a modest 13.94 points or 0.09%
In the European equity markets, the major indices are all trading lower:
- German DAX, 0.12% . Yesterday, the index -0.17%
- France CAC rose 0.03%. Yesterday, the index fell -0.32%
- UK FTSE 100 felt -0.20%. Yesterday, the index fell -0.13%
- Spain's Ibex -0.03%. Yesterday, the index fell -1.46%
- Italy's FTSE MIB -0.10% (delayed by 10 minutes).
Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mostly lower with Japan's Nikkei bucking the trend:
- Japan's Nikkei 225, rose 2.01%
- China's Shanghai composite index , -0.54%
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, -0.57%
- Australia S&P/ASX, -0.69%
Looking at the US debt market, yields are trading lower after an up-and-down session in yields yesterday:
- 2-year yield 4.341% -3.2 basis points. Yesterday at this time, the yield was at 4.376%
- 5-year yield 3.945% -3.2 basis points. Yesterday at this time, the yield was at 3.950%
- 10-year yield 3.996% -2.1 basis points. Yesterday at this time, the yield was at 4.034%
- 30-year yield 4.172% -1.1 basis points. Yesterday at this time, the yield was at 4.200%
- The 2-10 year spread is at -34.5 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -33.3 basis points
- The 2-30 year spread is at -16.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -17.2 basis points
In the European debt market, the benchmark 10-year yields are mostly lower:
