As the US session begins the AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. The USD is modestly changed vs the EUR, GBP, JPY CHF and CAD, with larger declines vs the AUD and the NZD.
The Fed is over. The big earnings are over. Now it is time for the next key event of the week - the US employment report. What is expected at 8:30 AM ET?
- Consensus estimate +180K (range +120 to +290K)
- Private +155K vs +164K prior
- November +216K (had negative revisions of -72K last month)
- Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 3.8% vs 3.7% prior
- Participation rate: 62.5% prior
- Prior underemployment U6 7.1%
- Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +4.1% y/y vs +4.1% prior
- Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.4% prior
- Avg weekly hours exp 34.3 vs 34.3 prior
What are some of the employment numbers from other reports saying?:
- ADP report +107K vs +150K expected and +158K prior. Weaker.
- ISM services employment not yet released
- ISM manufacturing employment 47.1 vs 47.5 prior. Lower and still below 50.0
- Challenger Job Cuts 82,307 vs 34,817 -- 10-month high
- Philly employment +0.8 vs +4.0 prior
- Empire employment -6.9 vs -8.4 prior
- Initial jobless claims survey week 189K vs 2205K last month (was the lowest since Sept 2022) This was a low watermark for claims, but may have been impacted by weather and a holiday.
Overnight, Eamonn posted on a poll in Australia where economists expected no change in policy in Australia until September to November. Fed hikes have been pushed out to May/June after the FOMC decision and press conference this week.
This weekend, Fed Chair Powell will be interviewed on 60 Minutes. Those more personal interviews tend to be dummied down a bit for the masses. They also tend to lure responses that may be more open as well. It is a national audience, in prime time, on a Sunday evening. How concerning is inflation? What is the Fed view on housing? He will likely be asked.
After close yesterday, the earnings from Meta blew away expectations. In addition, they added a cash dividend for the first time, and topped it off by announcing buybacks . Its shares are trading up +17.12% in pre-market trading. That has propelled the Nasdaq up close to 200 points and also pushed the index into positive territory for the week. Gains like that are also contributing to the tilt to "risk on" flows including moves into the AUD and the NZD.
Amazon also reported yesterday and is up 6.94% in premarket trading. Apple is not so lucky after they reported mixed results yesterday as well. Its shares are down -2.59%.
Looking at other big cap stocks, the morning snapshot is showing:
- Microsoft up 1.04%,
- Google up 0.80%,
- Nvidia up 2.00%,
- SMCI - who announced this week and is the new AI rocket ship stock - is up 3.17% after a 10.17% gain yesterday.
- AMD is rebounding after less-than-stellar earnings this week, but is up 2.25% today.
A snapshot of the markets as the North American session begins currently shows:
- Crude oil is trading down five cents or -0.07% at $73.77. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $76.11
- Gold is trading unchanged at $2054.45. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $2033.71
- Silver is trading unchanged at $23.16. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $22.62
- Bitcoin traded at $43,108. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $42,059.
In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are all higher led by the NASDAQ index
- Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 42.16 points. Yesterday the index rose 369.54 points or 0.97%. Coming into today, the index is up 1.08% for the week
- S&P futures are implying a gain of 33.15 points. Yesterday the index rose to 60.52 points or 1.25%. Coming into today, the index was up 0.31%.
- Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 185.80. Yesterday the index rose 197.63 points or 1.30%. Coming into today, the index closed down -0.61%. The
In the European equity markets, the major indices are trading higher. The gains are pushing the indices into positive territory for the week:
- German DAX, +0.84%. For the week the index is up 0.23%
- France CAC +0.69%. For the week, the index is up 0.10%
- UK FTSE 100, +0.52%. For the week the index is up 0.35%
- Spain's Ibex, +1.14% %. For the week the index is up 1.93%
- Italy's FTSE MIB, 0.69% (delayed by 10 minutes).
Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mixed. The
- Japan's Nikkei 225, +0.41% for the week the next rose 1.14%
- China's Shanghai composite index , -1.46%. For the week the index tumbled -6.187%. That's its worst week since October 2018. Real estate and economic worries persist in China.
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, -0.21%. For the week the index fell -2.62%.
- Australia S&P/ASX, +1.47%. PPI data was lighter for the quarter. For the trading week the index rose 1.9%.
Looking at the US debt market, yields are trading lower to start the trading day.
- 2-year yield 4.229%, +3.5 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.243%
- 5-year yield 3.828% +2.9 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield 3.868%
- 10-year yield 3.883% +2.1 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 3.940%
- 30-year yield 4.116% +1.3 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.183%
- The 2-10 year spread is at -34.9 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -30.1 basis points
- The 2-30 year spread is at -11.1 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -0.6 basis points.
In the European debt market, the benchmark 10-year yields are mostly lower:
