As the North American session begins the EUR is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest. The major currencies are relatively scrunched together. The USD is mixed with modest gains of 0.21% vs the GBP and NZD leading the way up and the EUR and CAD both down a modest -0.05% to the downside. The US CPI and PPI data this week behaved with each moving to the downward direction. The clock is already ticking to the next report(s) for the further clues. The market is hoping for a continuation to the downside. The Fed Funds January 2024 contract is implying a yield of 4.37%. The current fed funds target is 5% (with another 25 bps to come in May?). Fed officials are mostly holding back from expressing a pause (they see 5.25% as the terminal topside target range), and certainly do not see cuts in 2023 at least. In the meeting minutes, they did say they are leaning to negative growth by the end of the year as the impact of hikes starts to take hold. Needless to say, we are near a point of inflection. The question is when. PS Fed's Bostic sees one more hike in his comments today.
Today, the earnings calendar has gotten underway with JPMorgan, Wells Farg, PNC and Citibank leading the way. All beat expectations. PNC is trading above and below unchanged. JPMorgan is moving higher (up 5.57%), as is Wells Fargo (+2.57%). Citi just announced and beat as well. The stock is up 3.6% soon after the news. Boeing shares are down after reports of a parts issue which will slow production (-8%).
Retail sales leads releases today with industrial production (at 9:15 a.m. ET), and Michigan consumer sentiment being released with business inventories (at 10 AM ET). Canada Manufacturing sales will be released at 8:30 AM ET).
A snapshot of the market currently shows:
- Spot gold is trading down -$6.46 at $2033.96 (highest level since March 2022 when the price spiked at $2070.42.
- Spot silver is up $0.17 or 0.70% at $25.98 (this week the price reached the highest level since April 2022).
- WTI crude oil is trading up $0.16 at $82.32
- Bitcoin is higher at $30,823 after training as high as $31,035. The high price today is the highest since June 2022.
In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are mixed with the Dow higher and the NASDAQ index lower. Yesterday shares sword with the NASDAQ index up nearly 2% on the day:
- Dow industrial average of 46.31 points after yesterday's 383.1 point rise
- S&P index up one point after yesterday's 54.25 point rise
- NASDAQ index down -54 points after yesterday's 236.93 point rise
In the European equity markets, France's CAC continues its upward search with another record high. A snapshot of the major indices shows:
- German DAX +79.23 points or 0.50%
- Frances CAC +41.07 points or 0.55%
- UK's FTSE 100 +56.58 points or 0.72%
- Spain's Ibex up +60.88 points or 0.65%
In the US debt market:
In the European debt market, the 10 year rate is mixed:
