The EUR is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins. The USD is mixed. The price action in the markets have been shaped by comments over the last hour or so on the back of comment from Putin that "there are certain positive shifts in talke with Ukraine".
Meanwhile, Ukraine's Zelensky is saying that Ukraine "has reached a strategic turning point in war" and that "time and patience is still needed until victory is achieved".
The question is "Is this a smokescreen that will end in tears?" or "Are the bombardment of sanctions and defeats on the ground on Russian forces - and all that comes with that - leading to the drive for a truce?".
The wild card is Putin himself. He drives the machine. He pushed all the chips in the table. The world has reacted from governments to the private sector. There is economic damage all around.
War is not the norm and this war is different. It might not be a world war as in WWI and WWII, but it is an economic WW that is pushing all the players to the gaming table with the stakes high (including potentially China).
Regardless of the end result, the markets - rightly or wrongly - have reacted to the headline news:
- EURUSD moved higher
- Stocks moved higher
- Yields are higher
- Gold is tumbling
- Crude oil moves is off it's high near $110.25 back down toward the $106.50 area. The contract settled at $106.02 yesterday. The price rose on talk that the Iranian talks had stalled.
- The USDRUB is lower (RUB higher) at 128.75 down from a high at 135.62.trading down $33 and seven cents or -1.66% at $1963.30
A snapshot of other markets are showing:
- Spot gold is trading down $31.75 or -1.6% at $1964.45.
- Spot silver is trading down $0.41 or -1.52% at $25.48
- WTI crude oil is trading at $106.87 up $0.85 or 0.89%.
- Bitcoin just moved back above the $40,000 level at $40,175. The low price reached $38,244.76. The high prices up $40,237.22
In the premarket for US stocks, the futures are implying gains across the major indices. Yesterday the major indices fell but recovered off their lows.
- Dow industrial average is up 385 points. Yesterday the index fell 112.18 points.
- S&P index is up 56 points. Yesterday the index fell -18.36 point
- NASDAQ index is up 218 points. Yesterday the index fell -125.58 points
In the European equity market, the major indices have also seen a push to the upside, erasing some/all the declines from yesterday's trade:
- German DAX, +3.5% (yesterday -2.93%)
- France's CAC, +2.4% (yesterday -2.83%)
- UK's FTSE 100 +1.4% (yesterday -1.27%)
- Spain's Ibex, +2.2% (yesterday at 1.15%)
- Italy's FTSE MIB +2.5% (yesterday -4.2%)
In the US debt market, the yields are mixed with the short rent higher in the longer end not so much.
In the European debt market, the yields are also mostly higher with the exception of the Italian 10 year. Yesterday the ECB was a bit more hawkish but kept the door opened for optionality on policy.
