The GBP is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins. The GBP got a boost after flash manufacturing and services PMI came in stronger than expected (click here). The AUD wandered lower helped by sellers near the AUDUSD's 200 hour MA (green line in the chart below). The price has dipped below the 100 hour MA and is trying to keep below that MA in early NA trading (see blue line in the chart below).
The GBP strength today is also being driven by the EURGBP which is tumbling lower after waffling between the 100/200 hour MAs ahead of the UK PMI data. The low briefly moved below the low from last week near 0.8797, but there is some "stall" against that level now. The 0.88195 will be eyed above for intraday clues. Stay below keeps the sellers in control. Move above and there may be more corrective momentum (after support held).
US stocks are back from the President's Day holiday, and are moving to the downside as fears of a stronger recovery/more Fed tightening, and increased tension in Ukraine as Putin spoke and upped the ante on his war with Ukraine and the west. Yields are also higher on the growth and inflation fear. In the US the S&P/Global flash PMI indices will be released at 9:45 AM ET (47.4 manufacturing 47.3 services expected). The existing home sales will be released at 10 AM ET (4.10 million estimate).
Canada CPI will be released at 8:30 AM ET. The USDCAD is sitting on its 100 hour MA near 1.3440 ahead of the release and awaiting the next shove from the data (est. 0.7% MoM and 6.1% YoY). Retail sales in Canada will also be released at 8:30 AM ET (0.5% est).
In the new trading day (at 8 PM ET) the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce her interest-rate decision. There is some uncertainty as result of the devastating impact of cyclone Gabrielle, with some calling for the central bank to hold off on tightening. The central bank was expected to tighten by 50 basis points. Technically, the NZDUSD is so far holding below its 100 hour MA at 0.6250 after a couple of tests today.
A snapshot of the markets are showing:
- Spot gold is trading down $-9.60 or -0.52% at $1831.30
- Spot silver is trading down eight cents or -0.37% at $21.71
- WTI crude oil is trading up $0.47 at $77.02
- Bitcoin is trading a bit lower $24,612
In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are taken on the chin:
- Dow Industrial Average -285 points after Friday's 129.84 point rise
- S&P index is trading down -31 points after Friday's -11.32 point decline
- NASDAQ index is -127 points after Friday's -68.56 point decline
Walmart earnings to came out better than expected, but it's not helping the averages (EPS $1.71 versus $1.51 expected, revenues $164.05 billion versus $159.76 billion expected. They also raise the dividend 2% to $2.28 per share. They did guide lower that $1.25 – $1.30 versus $1.36 expected. Shares are down -3.37% in premarket trading.
In the European equity markets, the major indices are also trading lower. Yesterday the UK FTSE 100 closed at a record high level (although the intraday high was short of the all-time high):
- German DAX, -0.33%
- France's CAC, -0.26%
- UK's FTSE 100, -0.21%
- Spain's Ibex, -0.3%
- Italy's FTSE 100 -0.6%
in the Asian-Pacific markets:
- Japan's Nikkei 225 index, -0.21%
- Hang Seng index -1.71%
- Shanghai composite index +0.49%
- Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index -0.21%
In the US a debt market, yields are marching to the upside. The 10 year yield is up 5.1 basis points to 3.879%:
In the European debt markets, yields are higher as well with the better PMI data out of the UK lifting their tenure yield up 11.6 basis points
