With the central bank rate decisions in the rearview mirror and the earnings from the "Big 3 A's"- Amazon, Apple and Alphabet - also behind us (and they were not great for them), the next focus is the US jobs report and it's implication.
The expectations are for:
- nonfarm payroll plus 185K versus 223K last month
- manufacturing payroll plus 6K
- unemployment rate 3.6% versus 3.5% last month
- average hourly earnings 0.3% versus 0.3% last month
- average hourly earnings YoY 4.3% versus 4.6% last month
- average work week 34.3 hours versus 34.3 hours last month
Of note is there will also be benchmark revisions for 2022. The expectations are that the revisions will be to the downside. Th, but that they will certainly be of interest by the market as well. So expect volatility as headlines have the potential to create chaos.
The question also comes is bad news, good news or is bad news, bad news and conversely is good news, bad news or is good news, good news?
The weaker earnings from the Apple, Amazon and Alphabet may have shifted the bias from bad news is bad news as slower job growth saps consumer strength and spending and companies have to react. Remember just as job gains beget job gains that spurred on excess hiring, job losses can beget job losses as companies react to a "fast break the other way scenario". That can also lead to wages being cut as well.
The snapshot of markets are showing:
- Spot gold is up $3.46 or 0.18% at $1915.63.
- Spot silver is up $0.02 or 0.05% at $23.44
- WTI crude oil is trading down $0.20 at $75.69
- Bitcoin is trading at $23,518. Near 5 PM ET yesterday the price was at $23,662
in the US stock market, the major indices are lower after a mixed result yesterday saw the NASDAQ soar, the S&P have a solid gain and the Dow Industrial Average fall marginally. The futures are currently implying:
- Dow Industrial Average -69 points versus -39.02 points or -0.11% yesterday
- S&P index -23 points versus +60.55 points or +1.47% yesterday
- NASDAQ index -122 point versus +384.5 points were +3.25% yesterday
in the European equity markets:
- German DAX -0.56%
- France CAC -0.15%
- UK's FTSE 100 +0.32%
- Spain's Ibex -0.58%
- Italy's FTSE MIB -1.0%
In the US debt market, yields are little changed:
- 2 year 4.108%, +1.8 bps
- 5 year 3.487%, unchanged
- 10 year 3.388%, -1.0 bps
- 30 year 3.539%, -1.4 bps