The GBP is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest as the NA session begins. The USD is mostly lower with only modest gains vs the CHF and CAD. The greenback is weakest vs the GBP (46%) and NZD (42%) to start the trading day. The US stock and bond markets will be closed today in observance of the Thanksgiving Day holiday.
Tomorrow will be the so-called Black Friday with retailers cautious about a potential decrease in consumer spending as inflation takes a bite out of consumers' pocketbooks. Even before the traditional post-Thanksgiving shopping season begins, retailers have been offering promotions to attract shoppers. However, major retailers like Walmart, Lowe's, and Best Buy have expressed concerns about customer spending during the holiday season. The National Retail Federation predicts that U.S. holiday sales will grow at their slowest rate in five years.
Oil prices declined on Thursday, following losses in the previous session driven by uncertainty arising from an unexpected delay in an upcoming OPEC+ meeting, which raised questions about the extent of planned supply reductions by the producer group. Crude oil contracts had experienced a drop of at least 4% on the previous day. The delay of the OPEC+ ministerial meeting, originally set for November 26 was postponed to November 30, and that led to speculation that major oil producers are struggling to reach consensus on output levels and potential reductions in the future.
In Europe, the ECB meeting minutes were released. During the ECB meeting, there was a discussion about the premature termination of PEPP reinvestments, but it was seen as premature. The governing council emphasized the need to avoid overconfidence and complacency and to remain both persistent and vigilant in their efforts. They expressed concerns that their actions to control inflation should not lead to an undershoot of the target. It was acknowledged that the final stage of bringing inflation back to the 2% target was the most challenging. Members also agreed to continue applying flexibility in reinvesting redemptions in the PEPP portfolio. It was maintained that, given the current outlook, inflation could be expected to reach the 2% target by 2025. The governing council should be prepared for further interest rate hikes if necessary, and there was support for keeping the possibility of a rate hike open. Expectations were shifting from a hump-shaped interest rate path, and all members agreed to maintain the three key ECB elements.
Earllier today, the PMI flash manufacturing and service data was released with mixed results. :
In summary, Germany and the EU beat the forecasts in both manufacturing and services PMI data, while France's PMI data missed the forecasts in both sectors. The UK beat the forecasts in both manufacturing and services PMI data as well.
France:
- French Flash Manufacturing PMI: Missed (Actual 42.6 vs. Forecast 43.2)
- French Flash Services PMI: Missed (Actual 45.3 vs. Forecast 45.6)
Germany:
- German Flash Manufacturing PMI: Beat (Actual 42.3 vs. Forecast 41.1)
- German Flash Services PMI: Beat (Actual 48.7 vs. Forecast 48.4)
EU:
- Flash Manufacturing PMI for the EU: Beat (Actual 43.8 vs. Forecast 43.3)
- Flash Services PMI for the EU: Beat (Actual 48.2 vs. Forecast 48.0)
UK:
- Flash Manufacturing PMI for the UK: Beat (Actual 46.7 vs. Forecast 45.0)
- Flash Services PMI for the UK: Beat (Actual 50.5 vs. Forecast 49.5)
A snapshot of the markets as the day transitions into the US holiday session in North America:
- Crude oil is trading down -$0.71 at $76.42. Yesterday at this time, the price was trading at $74.80
- Spot gold is trading up $3.03 or 0.15% at $1992.50
- Spot silver is trading up $0.05 or 0.18% at $23.65 . Yesterday at this time, the price was trading at $23.84
- Bitcoin is trading higher at $37,322. Yesterday at this time, the price was trading at $36,558
In the US stock market, the major indices are closed today. Yesterday, the major indices closed higher.
- Dow Industrial Average rose 184.74 points or 0.53% at $35273.04s.
- S&P index rose 18.45 points or 0.41% at 4556.63
- NASDAQ index rose 65.88 points or 0.46% at 14265.86
In the European equity markets, the major indices are trading mixed.
- German DAX, +0.17%
- France's CAC, 0.20%
- UK's FTSE 100, -0.10%
- Spain's Ibex, -0.03%.
- Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.08% (10 minute delay)
In the US debt market, yields closed at:
- US 2Y T-NOTE: Close 4.897%. Yesterday at this time, the yield was at 4.854%%
- US 5Y T-NOTE: 4.432%. Yesterday at this time, the yield was at 4.371%
- US 10Y T-NOTE: 4.408%. Yesterday at this time, the yield was at 4.371%
- US 30Y BOND: 4.543%.. Yesterday at this time, the yield was at 4.527%
- 2 – 10-year spread closed at -49.2 basis points. This time Friday, the spread was at -48.6basis points
- 2 – 30 year spread closed at -35.7 basis points. This time yesterday the spread was at -32.7 basis points
In the European debt market, benchmark 10-year yields are trading lower:
