The important US CPI data, coupled with the weekly initial claims data, will be released at 8:30 AM ET. The CPI is expected to show a 0.2% rise for the month but a chunky 0.5% gain for the core reading (ex food and energy). That comes after a 0.6% rise last month. Adam previews the data here.
For a technical playbook, see my video done late yesterday here. The market prices have changed overnight (the GBPUSD is racing above its 200 hour MA) but the key technical levels used to define bias, risk and targets remain in tact The claims data are expected to move up to 225K after rising to 219K last week (it reached a recent cycle low of 193K in the previous week). US jobs from the BLS came out solid on Friday with the unemployment rate moving to a multi decade equaling low of 3.5%. The nonfarm payroll rose by 265K.
Ahead of the release the GBP is the strongest of the major currencies while the CHF is the weakest. The pound is being supported as PM Truss comes under increased pressure to clawback her tax cut proposal. Bloomberg is confirming that news as I type (but the administration is now denying those ascertions - oh my), and the GBP has gotten another push to the upside and away from its 200 hour MA at 1.1186 (now a risk level as the bias tilts more to the upside for the pair). The EURUSD has moved above its 100 hour MA at 0.9716, neutralizing the bias (the pair is still below its 200 hour MA at 0.9792).
A look around the markets is showing:
- spot gold is trading up $6.27 or 0.37% at $1679.54
- spot silver is trading up $0.23 or 1.23% at $19.24
- WTI crude oil is trading at $87.52 that's up around $0.25 on the day
- Bitcoin is trading below the $19,000 level in $18,787. The low price reached $18,584 the lowest price cents September 28
In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are trading higher:
- Dow industrial average is up 290 points after yesterdays -28.34 point decline
- S&P index is trading up 34.5 points after yesterdays -11.79 point decline
- NASDAQ index is up 70 points after yesterdays -9.09 point decline
The S&P and NASDAQ have been down for 6 consecutive days and closed in a negative territory for the month yesterday after the 5% plus gain over the 1st 2 trading days of the trading month.
In the European equity markets, the major indices are moving higher as well:
- German DAX, +1.48%
- France's CAC +0.1%
- UK's FTSE 100 +0.5%
- Spain's Ibex +1.3%
- Italy's FTSE MIB +1.7%
In the US debt market, the yields are lower ahead of the data:
In the European debt market, yields are sharply lower with the UK 10 year yield down -22 basis points leading the way:
