The US FOMC meeting will take place at 2 PM ET, and ahead of that decision where the Fed is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points, the JPY is the strongest of the majors while the USD is the weakest. The Fed in the dot plot at the last meeting said that they expected rate to end the year near 4.4%. The rise today would take the target Fed funds range to 3.75% – 4.0%. The expectations are for another 50 basis point hike at the December meeting. The markets will be interested in whether the Fed gives an updated indication of the terminal rate. The dot plot called for another 25 basis point hike early in 2023 before a pause to see if inflation started to moderate.
PMI data remained week in Europe with Spain manufacturing PMI tumbling to 44.7 from 49.0. Italian PMI moved to 46.5 from 48.3 German PMI moved to 45.1 from 45.7 last month. The EU PMI fell to 40 614 from 46.6. Overall the PMI data out of Europe has been in contractionary territory for the last 4 months (below the 50 level).
Bank of Japan corroded tried to talk the yen higher saying:
The ADP jobs report came in at 239K vs 195 estimate. The prior month was reduced to 192K from 208 previously reported.
A look around the markets are showing:
- spot gold is up $8.80 or 0.52% $1656.70
- Spot silver is up $0.19 or 0.98% at $19.78
- WTI crude oil futures are up 1.28% at $87.64
- Bitcoin is trading fairly steady at $20,537
- Dogecoin is trading up 11.69% at $0.1463 after extending to a high of $0.1588 (see post here). Since Fridays low, the prices up 96%.
In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are mixed after moving lower for the 2nd consecutive day yesterday:
- Dow industrial average is down 7.2 points after yesterdays -79.75 point decline
- S&P index is trading up 2.9 points after yesterdays -15.86 point decline
- NASDAQ index is trading up 19.3 points after yesterdays -97.30 point decline
In the European equity markets, the major indices are modestly lower after gains yesterday
- German Dax down -0.05%
- France's CAC down -0.17%
- UK's FTSE 100 down -0.09%
- Spain's Ibex up unchanged
- Italy's FTSE MIB up 0.14% %
In the US debt market, yields are marginally lower across the yield curve ahead of the Fed decision:
In the European debt market, yields are modestly higher:
