The JPY is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the North American session begins. The USD is in the middle of the major currency table with a mixed picture to start the trading day and the week.
The ranges are very narrow to start the week and those ranges, are well below the 22-day average (around a month of trading) :
- EURUSD 16 pips/30% of normal
- NZDUSD 16 pips/34% of normal
- AUDUSD 21 pips/44% of normal
- USDCAD 24 pips/39% of normal
- USDCHF 27 pips/53% of normal
- GBPUSD 31 pips/47% of normal
The economic calendar has been limited today However, in the EU today, ECB's Kažimír has advocated for a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments, suggesting that the European Central Bank should wait until June before considering its first rate cut. He emphasizes that hurrying into a decision would neither be wise nor advantageous, especially given that upside risks to inflation remain significant and present. Kažimír points out the necessity for more concrete evidence regarding the inflation outlook and believes that only by June will the ECB attain a sufficient level of confidence to make an informed decision on rate cuts. However, he also notes that it's important to begin discussions on potential easing measures now, indicating that the coming weeks will be used to prepare for such deliberations. Expectations in the market are for a cut in June.
Over the weekend, there was a report highlighting that the Bank of Japan is contemplating ending its yield curve control program, as reported by Bloomberg based on Japan's JiJi media outlet. The Bank is considering a shift in strategy from targeting the yield of benchmark 10-year government bonds to around 0%, to instead specifying in advance the amount of government bonds it intends to buy. This move is part of the Bank's efforts to normalize its monetary policy. The new approach would focus on the volume of bond purchases rather than targeting specific yield levels. Additionally, there is speculation that the Bank will decide on ending both the yield curve control program and its negative interest rate policy in the upcoming policy meeting, which is scheduled to conclude on March 19. This indicates a significant shift in Japan's monetary policy strategy, aimed at moving towards a more traditional monetary framework. Last week the JPY rose 2.07%, which was its largest gain in that currency since July 2023.
Looking for US Fed comments today? The Fed is now in the blackout period with the meeting scheduled for March 19-20. So there will be no comments until the March 20 decision.
Stocks are lower now. US yields are little changed. Bitcoin is higher with the price extending to a new all-time high at $72,306 helped by Pres. Trump comments that there is a lot of good use for it and would leave it alone. PS Trump talked negatively about Facebook and Meta shares are now down -1.51% in the premarket trading. The US stocks also started to shift more to the downside in early US trading as he spoke of the tariffs.
A snapshot of the markets as the North American session begins currently shows:
- Crude oil is trading down $-0.31 or -0.40% at $77.68. At this time yesterday, the price was at $78.29
- Gold is trading near unchanged at $2178.30. At this time Friday, the price was at $2166.34.
- Silver is trading up two cents or 0.13% at $24.34. At this time Friday, the price was at $24.45
- Bitcoin currently trades at $71701. At this time Friday, the price was trading at $67,559.
In the premarket, the US stocks, the major indices are trading lower. On Friday, major indices fall was led by the NASDAQ with a decline of -1.16%
- Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a loss of -62.50 points. On Friday, the index fell -68.66 points or -0.18% at 38722.70. Last week, the index fell -0.93%..
- S&P futures are implying a loss of -9.19 points. On Friday, the index fell -33.67 points or -0.65% at 5123.68. Last week the index fell -0.26%.
- Nasdaq futures are implying a loss of -51.95 points. On Friday, the index fell -188.26 points or -1.16% at 16085.11. Last week the index fell -1.17%
In the European equity markets, the major indices are trading mixed. Yesterday both the German DAX and France CAC closed at record levels:
- German DAX, -0.61%. Last week the index rose 0.45%. Last week the index closed at a new record level
- France CAC -0.26%.. Last week the index rose 1.18%.. Last week the index closed at a new record level
- UK FTSE 100, -0.49%. Last week the index fell -0.30%
- Spain's Ibex, -0.03%.. Last week the index surged 2.39% enclosed at the highest level going back to early 2018
- Italy's FTSE MIB, -0.39% (delayed by 10 minutes). Last week, the index closed at a new record level.
Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mixed:
- Japan's Nikkei 225, -2.19%.
- China's Shanghai Composite Index, +0.74%.
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, +1.43%.
- Australia S&P/ASX, -1.82% . Last week the index rose
Looking at the US debt market, yields are marginally higher:
- 2-year yield 4.498% +1.2 basis points.. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.492%
- 5-year yield 4.053% -0.8 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.060%
- 10-year yield 4.071% -1.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.073%
- 30-year yield 4.242% -2.0 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.229%
- The 2-10 year spread is at -42.5 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -41.9 basis points
- The 2-30 year spread is at - -25.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -26.3 basis points
European benchmark 10-year yields are mixed:
