...and now it is Fed time.
As the NY traders enter for the day, the JPY is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest. The USD is mixed/modestly lower after yesterday's declines after the CPI data.
The CPI data came and went and the data was weaker than expectations, sending the USD lower yesterday. Today the greenback is mixed as the market focuses on central bank policy decisions (and comments/terminal rates, etc.) starting with the FOMC today. The SNB, BOE, ECB will all announce tomorrow. Despite the lower than expected CPI, the Fed is still expected to raise by 50 basis points, but may signal the pace of hikes will continue to slow (to 25 basis points). The expected terminal rate moved lower yesterday to the low 4.83% (from 4.99% before), but market traders will be interested in the Fed's projection for the terminal rate. IN their last dot plot they looked for 4.6%. The central tendencies for the GDP, Employment and of course inflation will also be released along with the press conference from Fed Chair Powell.
A look around the market is showing:
- Spot gold is trading down $4.50 -0.25% of $1806.30
- Spot silver is down five cents or -0.17% at $23.66
- WTI crude oil is higher. The IEA sees more China demand in 2023 keeping prices supported. The price is up marginally by about $0.28 at $75.67.
- Bitcoin is pushing toward the $18,000 level currently trading at $17,906. That is near the high of $17,923. Binance lifted its suspension of withdrawals of USDCoin and returned to “business as usual.” HMMM.
IN the premarket for US stocks the futures are implying a marginally lower open:
- Dow is down 11 points after yesterday's 103.64 point rise
- NASDAQ index is down 15 points after yesterday's 113.08 rise
- S&P index is down 6.5 points after yesterday's 29.0 point rise
In the European equity markets the major indices are lower:
- German DAX -0.69%
- Francis CAC -0.45%
- UK's FTSE 100 -0.3%
- Spain's Ibex -0.1%
- Italy's FTSE MIB -0.35%
Looking at US rates, the yields are mixed with a steeper curve:
In the European debt market, the 10 year yields are trending higher. The ECB meets tomorrow. A surprise would be a 75 bp hike.
