As the NA session gets underway, the USD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. Overnight the UK CPI came in higher than expected as sticky inflation continues to be an issue. Food and non- alcoholic beverages contributed to the rise as it increased at the highest rate since August 1977 at 19.1%. The headline number is still over 10% at 10.1%. The expectations was for a decline to 9.8%. Deutsche Bank sees two more hikes to 4.75%.
The GBPUSD moved higher on the announcement and in the process extended back above the 200 and 100 are moving averages (green and blue lines in the chart above). However the price rotated back to the downside. Fears of a recession in the UK and slower growth ahead (as the BOE continues to tighten), or fears that the US will experience similar sticky inflation that will keep the Fed in play, can be the blame. Technically, the price rise above the MAs failed and buyers were forced to sell again. UK 10 year yields are up 10.4 bps today. US yields are also higher (by 4.6 bps).
ECB's Lane overnight said that if the baseline scenario persists it will be appropriate to raise rates further. ECB's Wunsch said the next rate decision will be between 25 basis points to 50 basis points.
In US real estate news, Redfin is reporting that US home prices fell -3.3% in March which is the largest month-to-month decline since March 2012. Mortgage applications fell -8.8% in the weekly mortgage data. The 30 year mortgage rate moved up to 6.43% from 6.3% last week.
A snapshot of other markets currently shows:
- Spot gold is reacting to the higher dollar by moving lower. The price is currently down $33.48 or -1.67% at $1971.67
- Spot silver is down $0.45 or -1.83% at $24.72
- WTI crude oil is reacting to potential for slower growth and is down $-1.67 or -2.06% at $79.23
The private inventory data last night showed that crude oil inventories fell -2.675M barrels in gasoline inventories fell -1M barrels. The expectations for today's data to be released at 10:30 AM ET are for a drawdown of -1.088 million for crude and -1.267M for gasoline.
- Bitcoin tumbled back below the $30,000 level and trade at $29,246. At 5 PM yesterday, the digital currency was trading near $30,440.
In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are trading lower after closing little changed/mixed yesterday:
- Dow Jones industrial average -134 points after yesterday's -10.55 point decline
- S&P index -25.8 points after yesterday's 3.55 point rise
- NASDAQ index -99 points after yesterday's -4.31 point decline
In the European equity markets the German Dax and UK FTSE 100 are moving lower. Spain and Italy are marginally higher:
- German Dax -0.22%
- Frances CAC -0.07%
- UK FTSE 100 -0.23%
- Spain's IMAX is up 0.14%
- Italy's FTSE MIB +0.08%
in the Asia-Pacific markets:
- Nikkei's 225 -0.18%
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng index's -1.37%
- China's Shanghai composite index -0.68%
- Australia's S&P/ASX index +0.07%
In the US debt market, yields are higher across the board as a react to our global inflation expectations. Feds Bullard yesterday said that he is looking for a terminal rate of 5.75% as inflation remains a concern:
- 2 year yield 4.267% +618 basis points
- 5 year yield 3.734% +6.0 basis points
- 10 year yield 3.617% +4.6 basis points
- 30 year yield 3.814% +2.6 basis points
In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are higher with the UK yield leading the way up 10.4 basis points:
