Fundamental Overview
The US Dollar got a bit of a boost this week as Fed Chair Powell reiterated that 50 bps of easing by year end remains the base case. The market’s probability for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November fell from 51% to 40% as a result.
On the data side, the ISM Manufacturing PMI released yesterday missed expectations slightly. On the bright side, the new orders index improved a little which might be an early signal of better times ahead. By contrast, the employment component fell further into contraction but remained above the cycle low.
On the CAD side, the latest soft Canadian CPI raised the probabilities for a 50 bps cut at the upcoming meeting as BoC’s Macklem hinted to a possibility of delivering larger cuts in case growth and inflation were to weaken more than expected. The market scaled back those probabilities following the surprisingly good Canadian Retail Sales and the GDP report last week.
USDCAD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD now trades in a range between the 1.36 resistance and 1.34 support. The market participants will likely keep on playing the range by buying at support and selling at resistance until we get a breakout.
USDCAD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price broke below the support zone around the 1.3490 level yesterday. We can expect the sellers to pile in around these levels to position for a drop into the 1.34 support, while the buyers will want to see the price bouncing back above the recent support to target a rally into the 1.36 resistance.
USDCAD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else to add here as the sellers will look for an extension to the downside into the next support at 1.3460, while the buyers will either buy the dip around the 1.3460 level or wait for a bounce back above the 1.3490 level to target the 1.36 resistance. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Today we get the US ADP report. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the US ISM Services PMI. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report.