The USDCAD move to new lows as both Macklem and Mester talked about their respective policies.
For the pair it traded to a low of 1.26645, which was just above the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the 2022 low on January 19 at 1.26628. That retracement intern is above swing lows going back to January 27 between 1.26496 and 1.26566.
Although getting below the 38.2% retracement would be a step in the bearish direction, the recent history suggests that it would take a move below the 1.26496 level to qualify as a bigger break, and tilt to the bias more to the downside (if the price could remain below).
On a break, the 50% at 1.26217 and the 100 day moving average 1.26173 would be the next major targets.
Hold support, and another notch in the floor would be made by traders with the near converged 100 and 200 hour moving averages as the upside target down the road.