The USDCHF has moved to a new NY session low at 1.0023. That move lower got within 6 pips of the closing level on Friday at 1.0017.
Turning the pair "red" on the day would be a disappointment especially since the pair did extend to a new cycle and 2022 high at 1.00637. That took out the high from last week at 1.00486. The high also took the USDCHF to the highest level since May 26, 2019.
Looking at the hourly chart, the pair has been on a strong up trend. The chart below shows a few dips below the 100 hour MA. Last week, the US CPI day with the volatility from that release, did see the USDCHF price trade above and below that MA line on a number of occasions (see blue line). However, the price closed above and rallied on Thursday. Friday saw the price trade more up and down, with the high from Thursday as a ceiling. The pair did close lower on Friday at 1.0017.
Going forward, the 100 hour MA (blue line) comes in at 0.99845. Ultimately, it would take a move below its 100 hour moving average to tilt the bias more in the downward direction (as long as the price can remain below that moving average level). A break below the 100 hour moving average would have traders targeting the 200 hour moving average (green line). That moving average has not been broken since April 12. The 200 hour moving average (green line in the chart above) currently cuts across at 0.9925.
Taking a broader look at the weekly chart, the 1.00137 to 1.0027 area is home to swing highs going back to June 2019 through November 2019. There were three separate highs between those levels. Last week, the price of the USDCHF moved above that area and closed the week between the levels. Today, the price has once again traded above and below that swing area. The current price is reentering into that area but has so far stayed above the lower target (at 1.00137).
Summary: So the close support comes off the daily chart between 1.0013 and 1.0027. Below that level and traders target the parity level at 1.000 followed by the rising 100 hour moving average at 0.99845 (blue line on the hourly chart). Get below that moving average level and traders will start to work on the 200 hour moving average as the next key target.
All those levels need to be broken to give the sellers more control. Absent that and the buyers are still winning and the sellers are still losing (in the intermediate-term).
On the topside get above the high for the day at 1.00637 and traders will start to look toward a swing high area on the weekly chart between 2018 and 2019 at 1.0097 to 1.01292. Above that, and the 2019 high price at 1.02347 would be targeted.