The USDCHF has moved higher eight straight days and 14 of the last 15. The move to the upside took the pair up nearly 500 pips. The high price peaked at 0.97936 today.
The price rise took the pairs price into a swing area between 0.97836 and 0.98008 on the daily chart above. Sellers leaned against the area after the unabated string of up days. Profit takers are pushing the price lower today.
Looking at the hourly chart below, the price decline has now tested - and even broken briefly - it's rising 100 hour moving average at 0.97266. Get below that level and the swing low from the European session yesterday at 0.97134 would open the door for a move toward the 38.2% retracement of the last trend leg up from the April 25 low. That level comes in at 0.9699 (call it 0.9700). Below that , and the 50% retracement of the same move higher comes in at 0.96699. That would be another target followed by the rising 200 hour moving average at 0.96487
Ultimately, if the sellers are to take more control, getting below the 200 hour moving average would be needed to be broken to show that the sellers mean business.
Conversely, if the 100 hour moving average can hold support, the buyers are still in play. If the price can then move back above the swing high from last week at 0.97577, that would scare the shorts/sellers today with the 0.9800 level as the next major target to the upside.
For now, however, I will give the sellers the benefit of the doubt. The USDCHFs inability to move above 0.9800, the overbought conditions and subsequent move lower, gives the upside some cause for pause, with the potential for additional corrective move and more probing to the downside. The caveat (or risk level) is that the price needs to stay below 0.97577, and also start to trade more below the 100 hour moving average at 0.97266 sooner rather than later.
Absent that, and the correction today to the 100 hour moving average is a modest concession in what has been a strong trend move to the upside that may not be over.
