The USDCHF moved higher early in the Asian session and the momentum higher, moved the price above its 100 day moving average at 0.8687. Momentum could not be sustained, however, and the price started to rotate back to the downside.
In the early US session that momentum has continued with the day's low prices from last Thursday and Friday tested (and near lows from Tuesday as well). Those lows came in at 0.8649 area.
A break below that floor level would have traders targeting the broken at 38.2% retracement of the move down from the early July high to the September low at 0.86318. Move below that and it opens door for further selling in the USDCHF as more and more buyers turn to sellers on the disappointment from the failed breaks higher.
Conversely, stay above, and the 100-day MA at 0.86874 becomes the focus once again.
Sellers are making a play after a failure above the 100-day moving average. However the sellers need to take the price back below 0.86494, and then the broken 38.2% retracement at 0.863182 to put the sellers more in control
SUMMARY:
Key Levels:
Support:
0.8649 (lows from Thursday, Friday, and Tuesday)
0.86318 (38.2% retracement of July-Sept move)
Resistance:
0.86874 (100-day MA)
Recent Price Action:
USDCHF moved above 100-day MA early in Asian session
Momentum faded, and price rotated back down
Tested lows from Thursday, Friday, and Tuesday (0.8649 area)
Current Outlook:
Break below 0.8649 would target 0.86318 (38.2% retracement)
Move below 0.86318 would open door for further selling
Stay above 0.8649, and 100-day MA (0.86874) becomes focus once again
Seller's Requirements:
Take price below 0.86494
Break below 0.86318 (38.2% retracement) to gain control
Buyer's Requirement:
Sustain price above 0.8649
Move back above 100-day MA (0.86874) to regain momentum