On the daily chart below for USDCHF , we can see that the pair has been ranging for a month now although it keeps a bearish bias as the moving averages act as resistance for the trend. USD/CHF had a pretty solid run to the downside as the US regional banking crisis and the expectations for rate cuts weakened the USD a lot.

The market now is watching how fast inflation is expected to fall to the target as the fear of persistently high inflation is still there. In fact, across all the other markets we’ve seen a choppy price action trading into today’s US CPI report. Hot data won’t be taken well, and the USD is expected to strengthen as the market should reprice interest rates expectations.

USDCHF technical analysis

On the 4 hour chart below, we can see more closely the range between the 0.8858 support and the 0.9000 resistance. The moving averages have crossed to the upside, so the bias at the moment is bullish and suggests that we may get back to the top of the range, but of course this will be decided by the data. The buyers are leaning against the red long period moving average as it offered support in the past weeks and was pretty accurate in determining the short-term trend within the range.

On the 1 hour chart below, we can see that the price action is choppy and confusing. There’s pretty much nothing we can glean from this chart. We have only the top and the bottom of the range as clear levels. That’s why today it’s all about the CPI with a hot reading expected to boost the USD and a cold one to weaken it. Watch out!