The USD/JPY pair moved lower during the morning U.S. session but found support at the rising 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart (see lower blue line on the chart above), where sellers turned into buyers, driving the price higher.
Current Movement:
- The price is now testing the falling 100-hour moving average at 154.73.
- The 200-hour moving average, just above at 154.88, serves as the next key resistance.
Bullish Outlook:
- A sustained move above both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages would reinforce a bullish bias.
- Yesterday's attempt to break above these levels failed, highlighting their importance as resistance points.
Context:
- Since late October, price action has fluctuated around the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, signaling market indecision.
- However, the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart has remained a strong support level, with only minor and short-lived breaks on November 5-6 and earlier this week.
Key Takeaway:
- The 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart remains critical. As long as the price holds above this level, buyers retain control (with the 100/200 hour MAs as other targets to the upside).
- A break below this support MA at 153.88 with sustained momentum would shift the bias towards bearishness.